Slowing Economy Doesn’t Mean Major Reduction In Emissions

December 18, 2008

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Environmentalists who hoped a slowing global economy will mean major reductions in GHG emissions are likely to be disappointed. The Guardian reported that the annual growth in emissions of 3 percent is only likely to slow modestly despite a gloomy economic forecast for next year.

The Global Carbon Project’s latest research also shows that despite an economic downturn, CO2 emissions climbed 3 percent from 2006 to 2007.

Deutsche Bank predicted that developed countries, such as emissions covered by the European carbon trading scheme, would drop 10 percent compared with last year. However, European emissions are likely to rise again in two years.

Abyd Karmali, Merrill Lynch’s global head of carbon emissions, told the Guardian that developing world economies are also likely to offset any emissions falls from developed economies.

In addition, cheaper fuel prices might cancel out some of the savings expected in some sectors. Lower price of carbon on trading markets and lower price of coal, combined with a lack of credit may also halt new other green-energy developments.

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