Obama-plan 2012 Carbon Allowances Likely Priced at $13.70

February 27, 2009

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By 2012, President Obama’s budget presumes a price for U.S. carbon allowances at about $13.70, according to analysts at Point Carbon.

European Union Allowances (EUAs) are priced at about $13.35.

Point Carbon, a provider of independent analysis and consulting services for global power, gas and carbon markets, notes that the estimates come from Obama’s budget proposal to Congress Feb, 26 and do not reflect real market prices, according to a press release.

As for companies’ fleet fuel costs, Point Carbon estimates a carbon price of about $13 would translate into an increase in the cost of gasoline of $0.12 per gallon, or six percent more than today. For electricity, companies would see an approximate 6.8 percent upcharge.

Some of the increases could be offset by new renewable energy construction under Obama’s stimulus plan, Point Carbon notes.

The projection assumes that, starting in 2012, about 80 percent of the economy would be placed under a greenhouse gas emissions cap at 2005 levels, or approximately 5.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. With the cap declining about 2 percent a year after 2012, Point Carbon estimates the price of carbon in 2020 would go up to about $16.50 per allowance, according to the release.

These figures pertain only to the United States and do not take into account a potential pan North American cap-and-trade scheme that some in Canada and Mexico may favor.

Details of President Obama’s budget proposal were revealed Feb. 26.

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