EIA Projects 2009 Emissions Reduction of 29M Metric Tons

October 7, 2009

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The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects CO2 emissions from the commercial and residential sectors to be 29 million metric tons lower in 2009, or just over 8 percent of the total projected reduction in CO2 emissions this year.

The EIA also projects carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels in 2009 will be 5.9 percent below the 2008 level, according to October’s ShortTerm Energy Outlook report. That is down slightly from the September report, which saw a 6 percent decline.

A decline in coal, natural gas, and electricity consumption in the industrial sector accounts for 140 million metric tons, or about 40 percent, of the total projected reduction in CO2 emissions, according to the energy outlook report.

EIA also projected coal CO2 emissions will fall by 10.1 percent in 2009, primarily because of lower consumption for electricity generation, with coal accounting for 63 percent of the total decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year, according to the report.

The report, Understanding the Decline in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009 (PDF), also forecasts lower natural gas and petroleum emissions this year, which will account for 7 percent and 30 percent of the projected total decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, respectively.

Another report, Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty (PDF), describes how markets assign a price to risk, and how the market-clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate price bands around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

EIA reports 95-percent confidence intervals for future oil and natural gas prices, which reflect market participants’ views that prices can change rapidly and cover a wide range over a short time period.

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