California carbon prices will remain low through 2020 due to excess permits, which will limit the revenue the state will raise through its carbon auctions, Reuters reports.
California carbon market partner Quebec saw 12 percent lower than anticipated carbon prices, according to analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon. This means prices for the linked market will be just above the action floor price of $11.34 a metric ton this year.
As a result, California’s quarterly permit auctions will only raise $21 billion for the through 2020 — well below the forecasted $60 billion in revenue, analysts say.
Analysis by Environmental Defense Fund published earlier this month said the first year of California’s cap-and-trade program shows the state’s carbon market is well-constructed and strong while the state’s economy continues to improve, according to analysis by EDF.