The CEO of Europe’s third largest energy group predicts the world will never be able to produce more than 89 million barrels of oil a day, says the Financial Times.
Christophe de Margerie, Total’s Chief Executive, noted that the economic crisis makes it harder to finance both the production of existing reserves as well as the development of new sources. Citing the high costs of developing Canadian tar sands and political restrictions in Iran and Iraq, he predicts expensive and environmentally challenging projects will continue to be delayed. Meanwhile older fields in the North Sea will decline in production as their oil becomes more expensive to produce.
Three years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted rates of 130m b/d by 2025. It has since revised that forecast down to just over 100m b/d by 2030.
Last week, the IEA dropped its forecast for 2009 down to 84.7 million barrels a day, predicting global demand will fall 1.2% this year, the biggest annual drop in 27 years.