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EIA Predicts 42b Tons of CO2 by 2035

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that CO2 emissions will increase to 42 billion metric tons by 2035, from 30 billion tons in 2007 if no significant policy changes are made, a 43 percent increase.

According to a PowerPoint presentation on the EIA website, coal use will continue to grow by 53 percent in the next 25 years, 85 percent of which will come from growth in India and China. It will continue to provide 43 percent of the world’s electricity, with natural gas a distant second at 19 percent. Although renewable energy use will continue to grow by 111 percent, it does so from a low starting base. Fossil fuels will continue to account for almost 80 percent of the world’s energy. Petroleum liquids will remain the worlds largest energy source, representing 30 percent of energy production. Global market energy consumption is expected to increase by 49 percent by 2035.

The vast majority of both energy and fossil fuel consumption will come from non-OECD countries in Asia and the Middle East. Fuel use by the transportation industry in non-OECD countries will surpass that of developed countries by 2025.

Environmental Leader recently reported that the EIA recently released an analysis showing that U.S. CO2 emissions had decreased in 2009 by 7 percent, the largest drop since the start of data records 60 years ago. The administration attributed the drop to the decline in economic activity.

It also predicted a 1.3 percent rise in CO2 emissions by 2011, driven by increased reliance on coal in the utility sector.

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