LED adoption will start to accelerate by 2014-2015, the report said, taking off first in the outdoor stationary sector. That is in part because the color of lighting is less important outdoors, and users can therefore install less expensive LEDs.
During those years LED sales volume will remain relatively low, but high prices will translate to large revenue numbers, Pike said.
Use of fluorescent lighting is also growing, Pike senior analyst Mike Wapner said. “Fluorescent lighting is already very energy efficient, it has increasingly cost-effective dimming options, and it’s been around long enough for people to have familiarity and confidence with its performance in a variety of lighting situations,” Wapner said.
The report said that wider user of existing energy efficient lighting technologies that will lead to huge energy savings, especially taking into account the government incentives that are encouraging retrofits.
The federal ban on incandescent bulbs goes into effect in 2012, but California is implementing the rule one year early.
But the report says that the U.S. lighting market is not turning its back on incandescents any time soon, despite the pressure of technological and policy trends. U.S. regulations designed to phase out many incandescent bulbs do not apply to some types of specialty incandescent lamps, Pike said. Incandescents are also cheaper, and many countries do not regulate their use.
The U.S. accounts for a fifth of the world’s lighting-related electricity consumption at an annual cost of $40 billion, the report noted. The largest share of this electricity is used in commercial and public buildings.
Venture capitalists invested $100 million in 14 LED lighting companies in the first quarter of 2010, up from $14 million in the same quarter a year ago, according to Cleantech Group.
Worldwide, lighting consumes about 17.5 percent of electricity, Pike said.