Through 2014, the market will see higher demand for residential units than for commercial units, as early adopters of private electric vehicles are more likely to own their own homes and because the commercial charging market will not begin to pick up dramatically until the total number of private electric vehicles on the road becomes large enough to make the setting up of commercial charging networks more attractive, the report says.
Furthermore, as the private electric vehicle market grows, it will reach more people living in multi-family dwellings, which in turn will lead to greater growth in the sales of commercial charging equipment for private use, the report says.
Despite growth, the commercial market is still largely reliant on government subsidies, the report says. In 2013, Navigant Research expects commercial charging unit sales to reach around 171,600 units globally, with the largest markets being Japan, the US and China. The commercial vehicle charging equipment market is expected to grow to just over 2.9 million by 2022, a CAGR of 36.7 percent. While the total sales forecasts are higher than had been projected previously, the pace of growth is slightly slower, Navigant says.
Commercial and industrial electric vehicle sales will top $30 billion this year, compared with $28 billion for consumer electric vehicles, but by 2023 that gap will widen to $154 billion for commercial EVs and $119 billion for electric and hybrid cars, according to a September report from IDTechEx.
The technology and market research firm’s forecast for the industrial and commercial EV market says that the hybrid and pure electric cars market may not see a profit at all in the next 10 years, with the exception of Toyota’s hybrid models. The main reason is that electric cars depend heavily on government support that could change at any time, unlike commercial and industrial vehicles, which are independent.