The market was 39 billion euros in 2013, with volume increasing by 3 percent to 9.6 gigatons.
Most of this year’s growth by value is expected to come from the 8.3 Gt EU Allowances (EUAs) that will change hands. This 3 percent volume increase (up from 8 Gt last year) will produce value growth of 70 percent; generating both the largest volumes and value globally.
The increase is driven by an expectation that after imminent backloading is implemented early in 2014, prices could rise to 7.5 euros per ton, increasing over-the-counter and exchange traded liquidity.
This would lead to a significant increase in value, up by more than two thirds.
Even though the volume growth is minimal year-on-year, and the auction volume will actually decrease as a result of backloading, market confidence is expected to improve that it would drive the price up by 35 percent per metric ton, the report says.