In an alternative scenario, an even more aggressive regulatory program will cause demand to drop 13 percent.
Demand will drop from 12.3 billion gallons today to 11.2 billion gallons a year by 2020. Federal efficiency regulation will be the primary factor, followed by the state’s zero-emissions vehicle program (ZEV), a federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).
Under the more aggressive scenario, demand falls to 10.6 billion gallons. This assumes efficiency standards are met and vehicles are replaced more readily.
Since 2002, Californian gasoline demand has fallen from 15.4 billion gallons, primarily the result of consumers travelling slightly fewer miles and the fleet becoming more fuel-efficient, BNEP says.
Additionally more cars with no tailpipe emissions will enter the fleet. Shrinking gasoline demand, and the pressure of tightening regulation, could see crude oil refineries usage decline, with the state’s refining sector consolidating.
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