Industry observers believe that the battle between producers and independent refiners is less about equalizing world crude oil prices then it is about which energy sector should benefit from exports.  Although crude oil exports are banned, the same ban does not apply to the sale of refined products or natural gas liquids (NGLs).  Observers argue that so long as the ban is in place, independent refiners benefit by being allowed to export refined and finished products at a premium.  If the ban is lifted, a portion of the export premium now paid to independent refiners will instead go to oil producers. A reduction in the export of finished products, combined with a possible increase in the cost of crude oil, will further shrink refining margins, putting the long term survivability of many small refining companies at risk.

Over the past few years, a number of integrated oil companies with refining facilities in the Gulf Coast have started installing splitters in crude units, which is a quick and low cost means of separating heavier crude from condensate at the beginning of the refining process. Since the ban only pertains to crude oil, condensates, which can be sold as a light oil product (such as naphtha and kerosene) do not fall under the current ban.  This ongoing capital investment by major integrated oil companies suggests that despite intense lobbying efforts, it is doubtful the ban will be lifted any time soon. If industry believed a lifting of the crude oil ban was eminent, refiners currently installing splitters would direct capital and resources elsewhere.

Some opponents of lifting the ban note that the US is still an importer of crude, up to 7,000,000 barrels per day, and that this imbalance needs to be equalized before any consideration is given to lifting the ban.  Those opposed to building the Keystone pipeline have seized on the oil industry’s efforts to lift the ban to undercut industry’s arguments in favor of the pipeline. Pipeline proponents argue that exporting Canadian tar sands oil into the US will further reduce this country’s dependence on oil from countries less friendly to the US, yet some of these same proponents are also in favor of lifting the export ban. Activists, believing that the Keystone pipeline creates grave environmental risks, argue that the country’s thirst for crude should not be increased by exports, requiring additional imports from Canada, and using this increased demand for imports as justification for approving the Keystone pipeline.